Status · Live · v1.0
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Decision Infrastructure · Goldeneye Capital

Goldeneye

A terminal for analysts who think in distributions, not directions.

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Chicago · 2026
01 · Thesis

The era of certainty is over. The decade ahead belongs to those who can reason in distributions.

Goldeneye Founding Memo
02 · The Problem

The analyst is drowning in inputs and starved for structure.

01 · Volume

More data than the day will allow

Headlines · Reports · Curves

02 · Latency

Signals decay before the analyst integrates them

Seconds to relevance

03 · Opacity

Models that won't show their work

Black-box forecasts

04 · Anchoring

Yesterday's thesis colors today's read

Bias compounds silently

05 · Crowding

Positioning data lags conviction

By the time it's clear, it's late

06 · Calibration

Confidence doesn't track edge

Few analysts measure their own hit-rate

~12×Data sources a commodity analyst is expected to track in real-time
3.2sMedian attention span on any single chart before context-switch
<7%Of analysts measure their own conviction calibration formally
03 · What we built

A terminal designed to make reasoning the product — not the byproduct.

Capability 01Working Thesis

A first-class object for what you believe — and what would change your mind.

Every screen revolves around the analyst's current view. Evidence pulled from forecasts and scenarios auto-populates the supporting / contradicting columns. A conviction slider anchors the thesis to a number. Goldeneye's LLM critiques it: missed risks, blind spots, questions to answer.

  • Persistent dashboard panel — never two clicks away
  • Auto-populated from latest ensemble forecast and scenario run
  • Critique drawer surfaces what the analyst may be missing
Capability 02Explainable Forecasts

Four models, weighted reasoning steps, an honest hit-rate against history.

The ensemble reads weather, storage, positioning, and price-only signals. Each model's directional call carries its supporting + contradicting factors with weights. A backtest engine replays the same models against real history under strict look-ahead controls — the hit rates are honest.

  • Moving Average · Volatility Regime · Prophet · Factor Composite
  • Look-ahead-safe replay with cheating-model property tests
  • Per-model hit rates displayed inline with the live signal
Capability 03Scenario Lab

Counterfactuals as a workflow — not a spreadsheet exercise.

Apply primitive shocks (weather, LNG export, production, storage) to a baseline and watch the forecast shift. Goldeneye's narrator explains the directional pressure, the strongest counterargument, and the data that would validate or invalidate each scenario in the next 1-2 weeks. Exportable as a PDF for the desk's morning meeting.

  • Six pre-built templates, plus custom shock builder
  • LLM-narrated outputs with safety envelope
  • Executive PDF export with brand chrome
Capability 04Decision Quality

A reliability diagram for your own convictions.

The Calibration page buckets every resolved journal entry by claimed conviction and reports actual hit rate. The DQ Coach panel synthesizes per-bucket coaching — what patterns appear in your wins, what patterns appear in your misses, and one actionable suggestion per band.

  • Resolved entries → reliability diagram with sample-size guardrails
  • Auto-generated headline copy when calibration drifts ≥ 5 pp
  • LLM coaching with explicit pattern-not-position framing
04 · The differentiator

We measure the decision, not the outcome.

Every thesis you write is logged with the data you saw, the counterarguments you weighed, and the conviction you assigned. When the market resolves, the system attributes outcome to calibration, not to luck.

Over time the calibration record builds a personal reliability diagram. Your 70% theses resolved at 64%. That gap is the most actionable signal an analyst can have — and nobody else is measuring it.

3Loop stages: pre-decision, mid, post
NConviction buckets, scored on hit-rate
LLMDQ Coach surfaces patterns across runs
05 · Built to last

Production-grade infrastructure with research-grade transparency.

FrontendNext.js 14App Router · RSC · TypeScript
BackendFastAPIAsync SQLAlchemy · Pydantic v2
DatabasePostgresTimescaleDB hypertables
IntelligenceClaudeAnthropic Sonnet + Opus
06 · The Ask

Goldeneye is building the decision infrastructure
for the probabilistic era.

The demo is live. The architecture is shipped. The next move is yours.

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