Signal Lab

NG (logreg_directional) — Signal Explanation The ensemble reads as bullish on NG, with 3 of 4 models aligned in that direction and the highest-calibration model (holt_trend) among the bulls. The strongest supporting factor appears to be the EIA storage delta versus the 5-year seasonal norm (approximately -9.4 Bcf), which suggests the market is running below seasonal inventory levels — a structurally supportive fundamental backdrop that factor_composite treats as a consensus-free signal. The most significant contradicting factor is the managed-money net week-on-week delta of -18,027 contracts, which suggests speculative positioning is being trimmed and could indicate that large traders are fading the directional move; the logreg_directional model returning neutral, weighted against the bullish cluster, reinforces this caution. Confidence band: moderate-to-high, reflecting strong model agreement but tempered by elevated volatility regime and the mixed price-momentum picture (RSI and 10-day momentum both flagged as contradicting factors across models). The primary invalidation risk is a sharp reversal in the storage deficit — whether through demand destruction, supply surprise, or a revision to the EIA print — which would undercut the core fundamental premise driving the ensemble.